An invasion seems impossible because the risk of wiping out most of Seoul City is too great. The North Koreans have stockpiled an arsenal of bombs and weapons targeting the city along the 38th parallel between the two countries. As strategists try to find a solution to the problem, there is another thing at stake here. Trump is playing hard but he also wants fame and the only way to get there is to win.
This means that he has to find a way to create absolute surprise and devastation in one fell swoop. This may involve the removal of the entire administration of President Kim Jong-un. The question is how to achieve this without invasion.
The G20 summit in Germany provides a platform for a frank debate on the issue. What are other nations thinking and supporting a plan that might backfire on you?
North Korea officials are well trained and intelligent. They know, like most countries in the world, that playing for time will win them more than any war at this point. Their goal is to have a nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile capable of striking the United States and most of its allies.
This is what the latter do not want to see happen. With Russia likely to side with the Communist regime, just like China, the odds are already strongly in favor of Trump backing down. But this is not in his usual way. To retreat is to admit defeat. Is it then a case of an old mate until something else happens?
The Korean War produced enemies on both sides of the divided peninsula. The north was under the protection of the USSR which nurtured a communist regime under Kim il-sun. It is his grandson who now runs the country. Kim il-sun invaded the South in an attempt to unite the two countries after the Second World War.
This has led 21 nations around the world to defend South Korea. The war was bloody and protracted and never really decided one way or another. Peace was declared in 1953 with an armistice but no peace treaty was signed. This means that the two sides are technically still at war.
This left the current president with the fallout and a clear ambition to complete what his grandfather had started. His antagonistic way of provoking South Korea and the West in some sort of retaliation for his threats by developing a nuclear bomb may be just a show in order to stand out.
The question for Trump and others is how serious are his threats and can he really deliver what he threatens? It’s something to be decided, because all the panic may be for nothing. This may be another reason Trump will not invade and why hope for other solutions can be found.